Toward Refined Indicators of Sustainable Development

My remarks highlight the misleading signals that are generated when standard neoclassical models are used to indicate economic growth and development. I wish to build on the now accepted fact that anthropogenic activity, what has been descriptively termed "technometabolism," has grown in scale to the point that it rivals in environmental impact some of the earth's natural systems. I will argue that the dangers in this level of activity stem not only from the massive drawing down of natural materials that this activity accomplishes and from the severe ecological stresses that can be placed on the assimilative capacity of ecosystems to deal with anthropogenic wastes, but also that the alarm signals that should sound when our actions are imprudent are themselves muffled by our neoclassical economic models. The couplings between economic reckoning and global ecological threats are weak or nonexistent. This problem leads to an unjustified optimism that environmental problems that accompany economic development in the less developed countries will gradually self-correct; that countries can "grow themselves" out of environmental despoliation. Two definitions of "sustainability" will be examined; one is reflective of environmental policies based on neoclassical concepts; the other suggested by the emerging field of ecological economics. Following Daly and Cobb, I shall refer to the first definition as "weak sustainability" and the second as "strong sustainability." Finally, I will suggest that by strengthening the connection between ecology and economics the information necessary to redirect technology in sustainable directions can begin to be generated. This will require new models of ecosystem health, enlightened public policies that can respond more quickly to indicators of ecosystem stresses, and a renegotiation of efficiency/equity tradeoffs.